Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything?—Asterisk

kept by eddie apr 29

Despite billions in volume, Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets produce useful forecasts mainly on high-profile risks, while AI chatbots may soon replace them as the primary source of probabilistic information.

The Average Guys Outsmarting Wall Street on Prediction Markets
Retail prediction-market traders—'sharps'—have earned millions betting on events like elections and movie scores, often beating institutional forecasts.
also on Metaculus, #gambling, Kalshi, #prediction-markets, Polymarket
Before he wrote AI 2027, he predicted the world in 2026. How did he do?
Daniel Kokotajlo's 2021 narrative predictions for 2026 were largely accurate on AI revenue, agent scaffolds, and assistant adoption, but overestimated chip fab speed and AI-driven political polarization.
also on #forecasting, #ai
We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
Prediction markets are crypto-anarchist tools that financially incentivize harm, enable insider manipulation, and will grow worse as they tokenize real-world assets.
also on Robin Hanson, #gambling, #prediction-markets, Polymarket
Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets - WSJ
A WSJ analysis finds a small number of algorithmic traders capture most winnings on Polymarket and Kalshi, while typical users lose money.
also on #gambling, Kalshi, #prediction-markets, Polymarket
What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2025?
Expert AGI timelines contracted then expanded in 2025 as reasoning model gains proved costly to scale, though steady progress and growing revenue undercut radical pessimism.
also on Metaculus, #ai