Reading up on Polymarket

14 deep · digging since jan 20

The Average Guys Outsmarting Wall Street on Prediction Markets
Retail prediction-market traders—'sharps'—have earned millions betting on events like elections and movie scores, often beating institutional forecasts.
Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets - WSJ
A WSJ analysis finds a small number of algorithmic traders capture most winnings on Polymarket and Kalshi, while typical users lose money.
Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything?—Asterisk
Despite billions in volume, Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets produce useful forecasts mainly on high-profile risks, while AI chatbots may soon replace them as the primary source of probabilistic information.
Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
A Polymarket bot that always bets No on non-sports prediction markets is open-sourced, but commenters debate its long-term profitability due to risks like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
Prediction markets are crypto-anarchist tools that financially incentivize harm, enable insider manipulation, and will grow worse as they tokenize real-world assets.
Polymarket Says It Deals in Truth, but Its Social Feeds Are Filled With Falsehoods - The New York Times
A NYT review found Polymarket's social media feeds contain hundreds of false and misleading claims, contradicting its stated mission of dealing in truth.
Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
A journalist covering an Iran missile strike receives death threats from Polymarket gamblers trying to force a retraction so they can win their bets.
How Anonymous Bettors Cashed In on the Iran Strike, Just Hours Before It Happened - The New York Times
Anonymous bettors on Polymarket placed hundreds of bets over $1,000 predicting a US strike on Iran hours before it occurred, sparking insider trading allegations.
Betting on Prediction Markets Is Their Job. They Make Millions. - The New York Times
Professional traders on Polymarket, known as "sharps," are making millions by betting on prediction markets.
Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
Prediction markets like Polymarket incentivize manipulation and gambling on news events, risking public trust by merging information with financial speculation.
The Rise of Prediction Markets - The New York Times
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are handling billions in bets on events from elections to entertainment, signaling a surge in speculative trading.

Reading up on Polymarket

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