Reading up on Polymarket
16 deep · digging since jan 20
- Do These C.E.O.s Loathe Each Other? Bet on It.
The piece details the fierce rivalry between Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour as they compete to dominate the prediction‑market industry.
- On Kalshi and Polymarket, World Cup Final Drives Bets Into the Billions
The World Cup final drove prediction‑market activity on Kalshi and Polymarket to record levels, generating billions in bets and possibly the largest gambling event ever.
- The Average Guys Outsmarting Wall Street on Prediction Markets
Retail prediction-market traders—'sharps'—have earned millions betting on events like elections and movie scores, often beating institutional forecasts.
- Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets - WSJ
A WSJ analysis finds a small number of algorithmic traders capture most winnings on Polymarket and Kalshi, while typical users lose money.
- Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything?—Asterisk
Despite billions in volume, Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets produce useful forecasts mainly on high-profile risks, while AI chatbots may soon replace them as the primary source of probabilistic information.
- Nothing Ever Happens: Polymarket bot that always buys No on non-sports markets
A Polymarket bot that always bets No on non-sports prediction markets is open-sourced, but commenters debate its long-term profitability due to risks like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
- We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
Prediction markets are crypto-anarchist tools that financially incentivize harm, enable insider manipulation, and will grow worse as they tokenize real-world assets.
- Polymarket Says It Deals in Truth, but Its Social Feeds Are Filled With Falsehoods - The New York Times
A NYT review found Polymarket's social media feeds contain hundreds of false and misleading claims, contradicting its stated mission of dealing in truth.
- Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
A journalist covering an Iran missile strike receives death threats from Polymarket gamblers trying to force a retraction so they can win their bets.
- How Anonymous Bettors Cashed In on the Iran Strike, Just Hours Before It Happened - The New York Times
Anonymous bettors on Polymarket placed hundreds of bets over $1,000 predicting a US strike on Iran hours before it occurred, sparking insider trading allegations.
- Betting on Prediction Markets Is Their Job. They Make Millions. - The New York Times
Professional traders on Polymarket, known as "sharps," are making millions by betting on prediction markets.
- Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
Prediction markets like Polymarket incentivize manipulation and gambling on news events, risking public trust by merging information with financial speculation.
- The Rise of Prediction Markets - The New York Times
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are handling billions in bets on events from elections to entertainment, signaling a surge in speculative trading.
Takes
my OpenClaw woke me up at 3:47 AM with one message: "found 6 markets resolving in next 90 minutes while US is asleep, need approval for $12K deployment" i typed "yes" and went back to sleep woke up to +$43,800 been running an agent that hunts timezone arbitrage for 9 days never thought it would actually wake me up the setup: gave OpenClaw access to global news feeds in different timezones: > Japanese government RSS > European parliament calendars > Australian financial wires > Middle East flight trackers > Asian central bank announcements told it: "find markets that will resolve during US sleep hours (2 AM - 6 AM EST), alert me if edge exceeds 30%" what happened at 3:47 AM: agent detected 6 markets resolving between 4 AM - 6 AM across different timezones all had same pattern: > crowd priced them like normal markets > but resolution would happen while americans sleep > official sources in those countries already showing signals the alert: > "Japan rate decision - 68% YES per BOJ leak, polymarket at 23¢" > "EU emergency vote - live stream shows YES winning, polymarket at 31¢" > "South Korea policy - government RSS confirmed, polymarket at 19¢" > "Australia trade deal - minister quoted 2 hours ago, polymarket at 27¢" > "UAE production cut - OPEC meeting notes public, polymarket at 15¢" > "Singapore regulation - parliament session live, polymarket at 22¢" - total edge detected: $43K potential - window: 90 minutes before -capital needed: $12,000 my phone buzzed i opened telegram half asleep saw "approve or miss" typed "yes" closed my eyes 7:30 AM - woke up to notifications: all 6 markets resolved during asian/european morning > US traders woke up to already-closed markets > my positions entered at 15¢-31¢ > all resolved at 95¢-100¢ profit breakdown: - Japan: $8,200 - EU: $6,900 - Korea: $11,400 - Australia: $7,100 - UAE: $5,800 - Singapore: $4,400 - total: +$43,800 checked the logs: agent had been watching these markets for 8-14 hours tracking official sources in real-time waiting for US to go to sleep then finding the moment when: > outcome is basically confirmed overseas > but US crowd hasn't updated prices > resolution is imminent the edge is stupid simple: polymarket is 70% american traders world events don't care about EST timezone while you sleep, markets resolve if you want to copy wallets running this 24/7:
@zerqfer
CLIs are super exciting precisely because they are a "legacy" technology, which means AI agents can natively and easily use them, combine them, interact with them via the entire terminal toolkit.E.g ask your Claude/Codex agent to install this new Polymarket CLI and ask for any… https://t.co/q2N7jYv16e pic.twitter.com/gzrpg0erGz
@karpathy
Claude-built bot on Polymarket printed $400k in one month.profile: https://t.co/Xa0CkKNxNrit auto-trades btc/eth/sol 15-min ups/downs, spotting cex lags and inefficiencies.firing off 500+ trades/week at tiny edges but compounding like crazy. all from prompting Claude to… https://t.co/dQD7WlXKQq pic.twitter.com/1IA8qI9gT0
@frostikkkk