What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2025?

kept by eddie feb 11

Expert AGI timelines contracted then expanded in 2025 as reasoning model gains proved costly to scale, though steady progress and growing revenue undercut radical pessimism.

Ryan Greenblatt – What happens once AI can automate AI research?
The discussion explores whether automating AI R&D could trigger recursive self-improvement, potentially yielding years of progress in months, with debate on verifiability, data bottlenecks, and alignment risks.
also on #agi-timelines
As Rocks May Think
Coding agents combined with reasoning LLMs have become automated scientists, enabling a golden age where all computer science problems appear tractable through vast inference compute.
also on #reasoning-models
Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything?—Asterisk
Despite billions in volume, Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets produce useful forecasts mainly on high-profile risks, while AI chatbots may soon replace them as the primary source of probabilistic information.
also on Metaculus, #ai
The Average Guys Outsmarting Wall Street on Prediction Markets
Retail prediction-market traders—'sharps'—have earned millions betting on events like elections and movie scores, often beating institutional forecasts.
also on Metaculus
Frontier labs don’t use most AI compute (yet) - by Josh You
Epoch AI estimates frontier labs use less than half of global AI compute, but OpenAI and Anthropic may soon dominate, requiring economic transformation to sustain scaling.
also on Epoch AI, OpenAI, Anthropic, #ai