Reading up on gambling
7 deep · digging since jan 12
- U.S. Is Said to Be Investigating George Santos Over Kalshi Betting
Federal investigators are probing former Congressman George Santos for betting on his own State of the Union attendance through Kalshi.
- The Average Guys Outsmarting Wall Street on Prediction Markets
Retail prediction-market traders—'sharps'—have earned millions betting on events like elections and movie scores, often beating institutional forecasts.
- Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets - WSJ
A WSJ analysis finds a small number of algorithmic traders capture most winnings on Polymarket and Kalshi, while typical users lose money.
- Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything?—Asterisk
Despite billions in volume, Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets produce useful forecasts mainly on high-profile risks, while AI chatbots may soon replace them as the primary source of probabilistic information.
- We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
Prediction markets are crypto-anarchist tools that financially incentivize harm, enable insider manipulation, and will grow worse as they tokenize real-world assets.
- Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
Prediction markets like Polymarket incentivize manipulation and gambling on news events, risking public trust by merging information with financial speculation.
- Show HN: Website that plays the lottery every second
Playing the Powerball every second would take 4.6 years on average to win the jackpot, demonstrating the lottery's absurdly low odds.