Reading up on prediction-markets
12 deep · digging since nov 26, 25
- The Average Guys Outsmarting Wall Street on Prediction Markets
Retail prediction-market traders—'sharps'—have earned millions betting on events like elections and movie scores, often beating institutional forecasts.
- Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets - WSJ
A WSJ analysis finds a small number of algorithmic traders capture most winnings on Polymarket and Kalshi, while typical users lose money.
- Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything?—Asterisk
Despite billions in volume, Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets produce useful forecasts mainly on high-profile risks, while AI chatbots may soon replace them as the primary source of probabilistic information.
- We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
Prediction markets are crypto-anarchist tools that financially incentivize harm, enable insider manipulation, and will grow worse as they tokenize real-world assets.
- Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
A journalist covering an Iran missile strike receives death threats from Polymarket gamblers trying to force a retraction so they can win their bets.
- Prediction Markets? An 83% Chance That Oscars Pundits Hate Them. - The New York Times
Oscars pundits reject prediction market data, preferring their own expertise over crowd-sourced wagering odds for Oscar race forecasts.
- The Tax Nerd Who Bet His Life Savings Against DOGE - WSJ
Tax economist Alan Cole bet his $342,000 life savings that federal spending would not shrink under Elon Musk's DOGE initiative, betting on budget math over political promises.
- Betting on Prediction Markets Is Their Job. They Make Millions. - The New York Times
Professional traders on Polymarket, known as "sharps," are making millions by betting on prediction markets.
- Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling
Prediction markets like Polymarket incentivize manipulation and gambling on news events, risking public trust by merging information with financial speculation.
- Robinhood, Susquehanna to Launch Exchange to Expand Prediction Markets Offerings - WSJ
Robinhood and Susquehanna are launching a new futures and derivatives exchange to expand prediction contracts offerings tied to sports, elections, and other events.
Takes
How AI Will Save Prediction Markets (via @aelix0x)
@0xjaniak
my OpenClaw woke me up at 3:47 AM with one message: "found 6 markets resolving in next 90 minutes while US is asleep, need approval for $12K deployment" i typed "yes" and went back to sleep woke up to +$43,800 been running an agent that hunts timezone arbitrage for 9 days never thought it would actually wake me up the setup: gave OpenClaw access to global news feeds in different timezones: > Japanese government RSS > European parliament calendars > Australian financial wires > Middle East flight trackers > Asian central bank announcements told it: "find markets that will resolve during US sleep hours (2 AM - 6 AM EST), alert me if edge exceeds 30%" what happened at 3:47 AM: agent detected 6 markets resolving between 4 AM - 6 AM across different timezones all had same pattern: > crowd priced them like normal markets > but resolution would happen while americans sleep > official sources in those countries already showing signals the alert: > "Japan rate decision - 68% YES per BOJ leak, polymarket at 23¢" > "EU emergency vote - live stream shows YES winning, polymarket at 31¢" > "South Korea policy - government RSS confirmed, polymarket at 19¢" > "Australia trade deal - minister quoted 2 hours ago, polymarket at 27¢" > "UAE production cut - OPEC meeting notes public, polymarket at 15¢" > "Singapore regulation - parliament session live, polymarket at 22¢" - total edge detected: $43K potential - window: 90 minutes before -capital needed: $12,000 my phone buzzed i opened telegram half asleep saw "approve or miss" typed "yes" closed my eyes 7:30 AM - woke up to notifications: all 6 markets resolved during asian/european morning > US traders woke up to already-closed markets > my positions entered at 15¢-31¢ > all resolved at 95¢-100¢ profit breakdown: - Japan: $8,200 - EU: $6,900 - Korea: $11,400 - Australia: $7,100 - UAE: $5,800 - Singapore: $4,400 - total: +$43,800 checked the logs: agent had been watching these markets for 8-14 hours tracking official sources in real-time waiting for US to go to sleep then finding the moment when: > outcome is basically confirmed overseas > but US crowd hasn't updated prices > resolution is imminent the edge is stupid simple: polymarket is 70% american traders world events don't care about EST timezone while you sleep, markets resolve if you want to copy wallets running this 24/7:
@zerqfer