Reading up on Metaculus

Retail prediction-market traders—'sharps'—have earned millions betting on events like elections and movie scores, often beating institutional forecasts.

Despite billions in volume, Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets produce useful forecasts mainly on high-profile risks, while AI chatbots may soon replace them as the primary source of probabilistic information.

Expert AGI timelines contracted then expanded in 2025 as reasoning model gains proved costly to scale, though steady progress and growing revenue undercut radical pessimism.