Reading up on decision-making

Despite billions in volume, Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets produce useful forecasts mainly on high-profile risks, while AI chatbots may soon replace them as the primary source of probabilistic information.

Mental models are simplified explanations of how things work, drawing ideas from multiple disciplines to improve decision-making and avoid common thinking errors.

Ten interconnected observations on thinking, cognitive biases, and common blind spots that hinder effective decision-making and professional growth.

A problem is the gap between perceived and desired states, solvable by changing reality, perception, or desire — often the latter two are optimal.