Reading up on forecasting
2 deep · digging since apr 15
- Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything?—Asterisk
Despite billions in volume, Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets produce useful forecasts mainly on high-profile risks, while AI chatbots may soon replace them as the primary source of probabilistic information.
- Before he wrote AI 2027, he predicted the world in 2026. How did he do?
Daniel Kokotajlo's 2021 narrative predictions for 2026 were largely accurate on AI revenue, agent scaffolds, and assistant adoption, but overestimated chip fab speed and AI-driven political polarization.