Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets - WSJ

kept by eddie may 05

A WSJ analysis finds a small number of algorithmic traders capture most winnings on Polymarket and Kalshi, while typical users lose money.

The Average Guys Outsmarting Wall Street on Prediction Markets
Retail prediction-market traders—'sharps'—have earned millions betting on events like elections and movie scores, often beating institutional forecasts.
also on #gambling, Kalshi, #prediction-markets, Polymarket
Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything?—Asterisk
Despite billions in volume, Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets produce useful forecasts mainly on high-profile risks, while AI chatbots may soon replace them as the primary source of probabilistic information.
also on #gambling, Kalshi, #prediction-markets, Polymarket
Robinhood, Susquehanna to Launch Exchange to Expand Prediction Markets Offerings - WSJ
Robinhood and Susquehanna are launching a new futures and derivatives exchange to expand prediction contracts offerings tied to sports, elections, and other events.
also on Kalshi, #prediction-markets
“Hill-climbing” is Silicon Valley’s latest bit of shit jargon - Nudged
The article critiques Silicon Valley's use of the buzzword 'hill-climbing' as vacuous jargon that disguises simple incremental improvement as sophisticated optimisation, signalling status while avoiding specificity.
also on Wall Street Journal
Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story
A journalist covering an Iran missile strike receives death threats from Polymarket gamblers trying to force a retraction so they can win their bets.
also on #prediction-markets, Polymarket