The Average Guys Outsmarting Wall Street on Prediction Markets

kept by eddie may 26

Retail prediction-market traders—'sharps'—have earned millions betting on events like elections and movie scores, often beating institutional forecasts.

Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything?—Asterisk
Despite billions in volume, Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets produce useful forecasts mainly on high-profile risks, while AI chatbots may soon replace them as the primary source of probabilistic information.
also on Metaculus, #gambling, Kalshi, #prediction-markets, Polymarket
Decision trees – the unreasonable power of nested decision rules
Decision trees use entropy-based information gain to recursively split data into pure regions, balancing interpretability and speed against the stair-stepping problem for linear boundaries.
also on #data-science
Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets - WSJ
A WSJ analysis finds a small number of algorithmic traders capture most winnings on Polymarket and Kalshi, while typical users lose money.
also on #gambling, Kalshi, #prediction-markets, Polymarket
What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2025?
Expert AGI timelines contracted then expanded in 2025 as reasoning model gains proved costly to scale, though steady progress and growing revenue undercut radical pessimism.
also on Metaculus
U.S. Is Said to Be Investigating George Santos Over Kalshi Betting
Federal investigators are probing former Congressman George Santos for betting on his own State of the Union attendance through Kalshi.
also on #gambling, Kalshi