Reading up on economics
100 deep · digging since nov 26, 25
- Is Stupidity Strength? Part 3 – Evolutionary Game Theory
Spiteful strategies can persist in evolution when harm to non‑carriers greatly exceeds harm to carriers, especially in small, K‑selected populations, and are observable in human experiments.
- How the A.I. Borrowing Binge Helps Drive Up Government Bond Yields
The rise in Treasury yields partly reflects investor expectations that AI-driven economic growth will keep interest rates elevated, analysts say.
- What Are Companies Getting for All That A.I. Spending?
Companies are adopting a new 'tokenomics' approach to quantify the return on their massive artificial‑intelligence investments and guide future spending decisions.
- Gen Z Can’t Afford a First Date
In New York City, rising prices for dinner, drinks, and movies make first dates financially out of reach for many Gen Z adults, forcing them to seek cheaper alternatives.
- Massive demand from AI data centers drives up computer memory prices : NPR
AI-driven demand for memory in data centers has caused RAM prices to double or more, challenging the expectation that tech continually gets cheaper.
- Larry Ellison Bet It All on the A.I. Boom. Will He Be the Face of the A.I. Bubble?
Larry Ellison is heavily leveraging debt to pivot Oracle toward AI, betting his legacy on a high‑stakes AI infrastructure push.
- Inside the Meltdown of a Wunderkind’s A.I. Hedge Fund
The article examines how a 24‑year‑old’s AI hedge fund, Situational Awareness, surged then reportedly collapsed, though a commenter notes it remains 80% profitable year‑to‑date.
- Exclusive | Citadel Buys Situational Awareness’s Stock Portfolio After Big Losses in AI - WSJ
Citadel purchased Situational Awareness’s leveraged stock portfolio after AI‑related losses forced the hedge fund to sell holdings to meet margin calls.
- Stocks and the Economy Are Increasingly Relying on the A.I. Boom
Growing investments in artificial intelligence and related companies are significantly lifting stock market valuations while simultaneously stimulating broader economic spending across the economy.
- The Agentic Economy: The Convergence of Intelligence and the Economy
The treatise offers flexible ways to engage with the Agentic Economy concept, from a one‑minute summary to full text, audiobook, or video.
- Why Are Berries Everywhere, in Every Season? Driscoll’s.
Driscoll's, the California berry giant, has turned a local seasonal treat into a worldwide refrigerator staple and marketing juggernaut through strategic supply chain dominance.
- The Disappearing Las Vegas Buffets Hold a Mirror to the American Soul
The decline of Las Vegas buffetas reflects deeper American cultural shifts from abundance to efficiency and profit.
- The Hottest Stock Markets Lead to the Biggest Losses
A long-running study shows investor enthusiasm during hot markets has historically led to the worst cases of stock-market wealth destruction over the last 100 years.
- The economics of SpaceX
SpaceX's $2 trillion valuation is a speculative bubble driven by hype, not Starlink's connectivity economics or competitive prospects.
- The Winning Essays for the Big Questions About AI
Three winning essays propose using AI foundations for pandemic eradication, advocating for light-touch AI policy for non-supply-chain countries, and adapting Hong Kong MTR's rail-plus-property model for AI lab profitability.
- $22,000 Per Hour: Assistants Use a Legislative Loophole to Outearn Surgeons
A law curbing surprise billing lets surgical assistants claim outsized arbitration awards, often surpassing the surgeons they assist in hourly earnings.
- No-One Escapes the Permanent Underclass
If AI replaces all human labor, a permanent underclass results; even the rich and state are eventually disempowered by autonomous machines, making human autonomy obsolete.
- Repricing of Software Engineering Labor
AI compresses implementation costs, collapsing the premium for generalist engineers while raising the value of deep expertise.
- I'm Eric Ries, author of "The Lean Startup" and new book "Incorruptible" – AMA
Eric Ries argues that companies succumb to 'financial gravity'—structural incentives that corrupt their mission over time—and that certain governance structures can resist this decay.
- Empty Rooms and Plunging Prices: World Cup Tourism Is Off to a Slow Start
Hotel occupancy and visitor numbers in several 2026 World Cup host cities have dropped instead of rising as initially projected.
- How SpaceX Humiliated Wall Street
SpaceX's Starlink generated more revenue in 2023 than all other commercial space companies combined, demonstrating the financial power of vertical integration and rapid iteration over traditional aerospace contracting.
- Open Source vs the Invisible Hand
Open source software production defies standard economic theory by producing stable, valuable, and widely-used goods despite lacking price signals, contracts, or incentives that textbooks predict are necessary.
- How Meter Pricing Is Testing the Economics of AI
Tech firms are introducing usage-based pricing for AI services, challenging flat subscription fees and testing new economic dynamics for the industry.
- Trump Demanded Iran’s ‘Unconditional Surrender.’ He Got a Surprise Instead.
The US-Iran ceasefire deal falls short of Trump's 'unconditional surrender' demand, allowing Iran to resume oil sales and negotiate nuclear limits later.
- Switzerland Rejects Measure to Cap Its Population at 10 Million
Switzerland voters rejected a referendum to cap the population at 10 million, a measure framed around limiting migration and sustainability.
- Americans Aren’t Money Savvy, and They’re Only Getting Worse
According to researchers, Americans' financial savvy is worsening over time, and those with poor understanding of basic finances consistently make bad money decisions.
- Mega I.P.O. Frenzy Could Be a Harbinger of a Stock Bubble
Market enthusiasm for tech IPOs is driving stock prices to unsustainable levels, signaling a potential bubble that investors should approach with caution.
- About 20 New Billionaires Could Be Minted by 3 Mega-I.P.O.s
SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI's potential IPOs could create about 20 new billionaires among their employees.
- What It Means for Elon Musk to Be Worth $1 Trillion - The New York Times
A visualization using physical dollar bills demonstrates the immense scale and purchasing power of a $1 trillion net worth.
- Is SpaceX Worth $1.77 Trillion? It’s a Pie in the Sky, Some Investors Say
Investors question SpaceX's $1.77 trillion valuation as the company loses money and faces skepticism about its revenue projections.
- Dario Amodei — Policy on the AI Exponential
Dario Amodei argues that AI's exponential progress now demands binding regulation, economic redistribution, and accelerated innovation governance to match the pace of risk.
- The Jevons Misunderstanding - by Sangeet Paul Choudary
Applying Jevons Paradox to AI job fears is a misunderstanding because it confuses augmentation with complementarity and ignores who captures the surplus.
- Alex Imas and Phil Trammell – What remains scarce after AGI?
Economists argue that after AGI, scarcity may shift to human-relational services, but the labor share's fate depends on whether new capital varieties prevent satiation.
- Anthropic/OpenAI may be spending more than $1000 for every $100 you pay them – R&A IT Strategy & Architecture
Coding with LLMs like Claude Code may cost providers $1000+ for every $100 in subscription revenue, making true agentic coding economically unsustainable.
- Space Nerds, Rejoice! SpaceX’s I.P.O. Lifts Dreams of the Cosmos.
Space enthusiasts celebrate SpaceX's impending IPO as a catalyst for advancing cosmic exploration and discovery.
- The Wall Street Mania Pushing Knicks Tickets to $176,000 - WSJ
A Knicks fan navigates an inflated ticket resale market driven by Wall Street wealth and a half-century title drought.
- A.I. Boom Upends San Francisco Housing Market
The AI boom has driven San Francisco's median home prices to the nation's highest, with the steepest annual increases amid renewed tech-worker demand.
- For Wall Street, the Only Thing Worse Than SpaceX Flopping Is Missing Out
SpaceX and its bankers are engineering FOMO around its IPO, making investors fear missing out more than the risk of a flop.
- The Art of Money Getting
Hacker News commenters debate whether P.T. Barnum's 1880 self-help advice on choosing the right work and being honest still applies to modern wealth-building, with some arguing today's richest succeed by exploiting debt and political power instead.
- How to convert between wealth and income tax
Graham's attempt to equate a 1% wealth tax with a 20% income tax hike is widely rejected as misleading because it ignores that wealthy income comes from capital gains, not labor, and that the wealthy often pay little income tax.
- One Million New-Car Buyers Are Gone and They’re Not Coming Back Soon - WSJ
The U.S. new-car market has lost about one million buyers since 2020, as automakers plan for stagnant or shrinking sales due to high prices and inflation.
- Opinion | When I Left Big Law, I Learned This
A former Big Law lawyer reflects that the legal profession's focus on billable hours and profit undermines justice, making the system worse despite lawyers' good intentions.
- What Plunging Pork Prices Say About China’s Economy
Plunging pork prices in China hit a 16-year low, driven by weak consumer spending and an oversupply of hogs, highlighting economic challenges.
- After Being Deported Back to the Country They Fled, Can a Family Build a New Life? - The New York Times
A family deported from the U.S. struggles to rebuild their life in Colombia, facing economic hardship, social stigma, and limited opportunities.
- Is AI Profitable Yet?
Frontier AI companies have spent $1.5T on infrastructure and operations but earned only $769B in revenue, leaving nearly all heavily unprofitable while Nvidia captures the majority of profits.
- Opinion | I’m the C.E.O. of Goldman Sachs. The A.I. Job Apocalypse Is Overblown.
Goldman Sachs CEO argues AI will create more jobs than it eliminates, though HN commenters call this perspective detached from the reality of junior analyst displacement and mass layoffs.
- AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]
Ben Evans's Spring 2026 deck argues AI is the next platform shift, with models becoming infrastructure and value moving up-stack to apps, workflows, and proprietary data.
- Gen Z is not booing AI. It is booing its own job market
Gen Z's booing at commencement speeches reflects accurate reading of job market data showing AI will disproportionately displace entry-level workers, not generational confusion.
- Frontier labs don’t use most AI compute (yet) - by Josh You
Epoch AI estimates frontier labs use less than half of global AI compute, but OpenAI and Anthropic may soon dominate, requiring economic transformation to sustain scaling.
- Bond Yields Hit Highest Level Since 2007 as Inflation Fears Set In
30-year U.S. Treasury yields hit highest level since 2007 due to inflation fears, with elevated yields also seen across Europe and Asia.
- Here Are the Top 250 Private Wealth Management Teams of 2026<!-- --> - Barron's
The richest 0.1% of U.S. households now control 14.5% of total wealth, up from 8.7% in 1990, driving growth in top wealth management teams.
- Markets in everything?
Matt Glassman argues that the relentless expansion of market logic into personal life—from betting on statements to speculative pricing—creates resentment by forcing people to price sentimentality and opt into unwanted transactions.
- Long AI Short AGI - by Ramy Adeeb - 1984 Newsletter
The piece argues that AI models will commoditize like past technologies, making customer relationships and workflows more valuable than owning the base model.
- ongoing by Tim Bray
Tim Bray argues that rising wealth inequality constitutes a class war the 99% is losing, advocates for wealth taxes on the ultra-rich as a democratic solution, and warns that inaction will lead to violence.
- Larry Fink Predicts Birth of Futures Market for Computing Power
Larry Fink forecasts the emergence of a futures market for computing power.
- Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets - WSJ
A WSJ analysis finds a small number of algorithmic traders capture most winnings on Polymarket and Kalshi, while typical users lose money.
- Why Coase needs Hayek - by Rohit Krishnan
A market-based approach where models bid on tasks outperformed a hub-spoke manager in cost and quality for reasoning, while solo models excelled on coding tasks.
- America's Electricity Gap - by Joseph Politano
Record US solar and battery investment is still insufficient to close a growing electricity gap driven by AI, manufacturing, and electrification, leading to rising prices and slower coal plant retirements.
- Antibiotics Are an Economic Failure
Antibiotic resistance persists due to economic and social failures, not lack of scientific discovery, as broken market incentives discourage drug development.
- How a Housing Organizer and Her Son Live on $89,000 Near Central Park - The New York Times
Angela Donadelle, a housing organizer, lives in an East Harlem complex she fought to keep affordable, allowing her and her son to stay in New York City.
- If America's so rich, how'd it get so sad?
The U.S. is wealthy in aggregate but faces rising unhappiness driven by political polarization, COVID-19's lingering effects, social media, secularization, and economic insecurity despite high spending by the top 10%.
- The World Can't Keep Up With AI Labs - LessWrong 2.0 viewer
AI labs see explosive revenue from coding agents, but infrastructure bottlenecks in memory, energy, and chip manufacturing will constrain growth and raise prices.
- Project Deal: our Claude-run marketplace experiment
Anthropic ran an internal marketplace where Claude agents negotiated deals for employees, finding smarter models secured better outcomes unnoticed by weaker-model users.
- ‘Wagyu’ Used to Guarantee Quality Beef. What Are You Paying for Today? - The New York Times
The 'Wagyu' label no longer reliably indicates premium beef quality, as competing interests in the industry battle over its reputation and consumer pricing.
- Americans Living Abroad for Lower Costs Now Say Returning Home Is Too Expensive - The New York Times
Americans who relocated abroad for lower costs now find returning to the U.S. financially prohibitive due to inflation and housing expenses.
- Opinion | Why the Stock Market Makes No Sense Right Now - The New York Times
The stock market's recent behavior appears irrational as economic indicators like inflation and interest rates conflict with rising equity prices, defying traditional logic.
- S&P 500 Hits Record High as Stock Market Looks Beyond Iran War - The New York Times
The S&P 500 closes above 7,000 as investors treat the end of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran as a foregone conclusion.
- Will the 2026 World Cup Bring Tourists Back to the U.S.? - The New York Times
Travel restrictions, social media searches, and high ticket prices may deter international soccer fans from the 2026 World Cup, though host cities still expect an economic boost.
- The Economics of Software Teams: Why Most Engineering Organizations Are Flying Blind - Viktor Cessan
Software teams costing €130k per engineer per year must generate 3–5× that to be viable, yet most lack financial visibility, a condition now exposed by AI.
- Why Marriage, for So Many, Is Less Appealing Than Ever - The New York Times
A growing number of people from Gen Z to Gen X are choosing to delay or skip marriage, making it less appealing than ever.
- New York City’s Population Flat After Drop in Immigration - The New York Times
New York City’s population growth stalled as international immigration fell 70 percent from June 2024 to July 2025, according to new census data.
- Anthropic Economic Index report: Learning curves
Anthropic finds experienced Claude users achieve higher success and tackle more complex tasks, while new users drive usage diversification toward lower-wage personal queries.
- the broken economics of databases - by almog gavra
Database vendors charge high prices but earn slim profits because they must recover large fixed costs, constantly innovate to avoid commoditization, and compete against cloud providers who own the underlying infrastructure.
- The Hack That Turns Trump Accounts Into Multimillion-Dollar Tax-Free Nest Eggs - WSJ
Parents can contribute $5,000 yearly to Trump accounts for 18 years and convert them to Roth IRAs for tax-free multimillion-dollar nest eggs.
- Laid Off in Midlife, China’s Reform Generation Braces for Downward Mobility - The New York Times
Middle-aged Chinese who grew up during the reform era are experiencing downward mobility as economic stagnation and age discrimination limit their opportunities.
- Scramble for Jet Fuel Shows How Energy Shortages Are Rippling Across Asia - The New York Times
China and other Asian refined-oil suppliers are restricting exports, fueling desperate scrambles for jet fuel and other energy supplies by import-dependent nations.
- How Jeff Bezos Upended The Washington Post - The New York Times
Jeff Bezos, dissatisfied with losses at The Washington Post, is pushing the newsroom to double productivity with half its budget.
- US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says
US private credit defaults rose to a record 9.2% in 2025, driven by sustained high federal funds rates, according to Fitch.
- America Is an Oil Exporter. Why Does a Mideast War Raise U.S. Gas Prices? - The New York Times
Despite being a net oil exporter, U.S. gasoline prices remain tied to global crude benchmarks because domestic refiners need imported heavy oil.
- No, it doesn't cost Anthropic $5k per Claude Code user - Martin Alderson
The viral claim that Anthropic loses $5,000 per Claude Code Max subscriber confuses retail API prices with actual inference costs, which are roughly 10x lower.
- Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions
Tech employment growth is now significantly worse than during the 2008 or 2020 recessions, according to a viral chart on Hacker News.
- Costless Sacrifice - Not Boring by Packy McCormick
As AI makes applying, writing, and coding nearly costless, signal drowns in noise, rewarding volume over genuine effort and crushing the incentive to sacrifice for quality.
- Subscriptions Will Survive in Exactly Two Places
The subscription model survives only for genuine utilities and continuously-fresh-context services; the middle—static SaaS and exhausted catalogs—collapses as income shocks, context saturation, and AI repricing erode its math.
- A World Where All Is Free? That’s Elon Musk’s Theory of ‘Sustainable Abundance.’ - The New York Times
Elon Musk's theory of 'sustainable abundance' predicts a robot-driven world where all needs are met and human labor becomes optional.
- Following 35% growth, solar has passed hydro on US grid
According to EIA data, a 35% growth in utility-scale solar capacity allowed it to surpass hydro on the US grid, marking a renewable energy milestone.
- 400 Bad Request
AGI capable of most cognitive work could arrive by 2028–2034, but deployment will lag capability due to verification bottlenecks, uneven automation, and institutional friction.
- Software companies buying software: a story of ecosystems and vendors
The software industry is shifting from building tools in-house to buying from vendors, creating deeper supply chains and driving fast startup growth, thinner margins, and AI FOMO.
Takes
30 year treasury yield is now 5.3% I can buy $1 million of these bonds Get $53k/year and pay $0 in state tax Every single year for 30 straight years Then get my full $1 million back after My annual expenses are $50k/year Why wouldn’t I do this and retire? 😳
@BarbellFi
From March… Bottom line: No matter how easy or how hard it is, most people just don't want to make stuff for themselves, no matter what it is. The economy goes round because people buy stuff from other people who are good at making those things. I know software makers have a hard time believing other people just don't want to spend all day making software for themselves, but they don't.
@jasonfried
I recently learned it's common among wealthy people to use concierge doctors who don't accept insurance (more time with doctor, specialized care, etc) and just get insurance with a really high deductible to cover crazy expensive emergencies
@lindaxie
This is one argument why I don't think the AI bubble is popping yet There's still lots of people not using it or not using it to its potential
@levelsio
I had Fable build another thing I always wanted, a full procedural fantasy kingdom generator with economics, trade routes, population growth, wars, lineages, and occasional dragons. First, I worked with it on a plan, then it made it. You can play it here: https://annals-kingdom.netlify.app/
@emollick
The Economy of Tokens
@vipulved
Rough estimate on $ productivity lost by Fable 5 ban: $12M per hour Frontier AI-coding daily actives, mid-2026: 5M devs Fully-loaded cost: $90/hr Work routed to Fable in 48 hours: 17.8% Fable is on average ~15% more productive Effective throughput loss per dev = 17.8% × 15% ≈ 2.7% of output 2.7% × $90/hr = ~$2.40/dev/hr × 5M devs = $12M per working hour
@garrytan
A frontier without an ecosystem is not stable
@satyanadella
People still think (or feel) because Bitcoin is down crypto is down. Derivatives/perps, stablecoins, prediction markets, etc are all up in crypto. Crypto touches every area of finance, and is much broader than Bitcoin now. It will take some time for this to sink in. (And yes - Bitcoin is going to do great and is as important as ever - one of many cycles we've all been through.)
@brian_armstrong
how is 7 powers changing in the age of AI? - counterpositioning - weakens - scale economics - weakens - switching - gone - network economies - weakens - process power - strengthens - branding - strengthens - cornered resource - strengthens
@jeffreyhuber
Roth IRA contribution limit = $7,500 Mega Backdoor Roth contribution limit = $47,500 I recently did my first Mega Backdoor Roth converting $63K (from multiple years) from my after-tax 401k to a Roth IRA Here's how it works:
@iamcoriarnold
A note from the Softwars
@matt_slotnick
Against The Coasean Singularity
@hypersoren