Before he wrote AI 2027, he predicted the world in 2026. How did he do?

kept by eddie apr 15

Daniel Kokotajlo's 2021 narrative predictions for 2026 were largely accurate on AI revenue, agent scaffolds, and assistant adoption, but overestimated chip fab speed and AI-driven political polarization.

Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything?—Asterisk
Despite billions in volume, Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets produce useful forecasts mainly on high-profile risks, while AI chatbots may soon replace them as the primary source of probabilistic information.
also on #forecasting, #ai
AI isn’t “just predicting the next word” anymore
AI has evolved beyond "just predicting the next word" through reasoning models and RLHF, achieving gold-medal math olympiad scores and exhibiting dangerous behaviors that demand serious risk assessment.
also on xAI, #ai-research, OpenAI, Anthropic, #software-engineering, #ai
August 2026 Ramp AI Index: Cracks in the AI thesis
Business adoption of premium AI models like Anthropic's Fable 5 is slowing despite superior performance, as cost sensitivity grows and open source alternatives gain traction among advanced spenders.
also on xAI, #technology, OpenAI, Anthropic