Scenarios for our Economic Future \ Anthropic

kept by eddie sep 10

Anthropic's economic model of 2030 shows AI boosts GDP across all scenarios, but in extreme cases, knowledge-worker wages fall over 10% and unemployment spikes, with capital capturing most gains.

Before he wrote AI 2027, he predicted the world in 2026. How did he do?
Daniel Kokotajlo's 2021 narrative predictions for 2026 were largely accurate on AI revenue, agent scaffolds, and assistant adoption, but overestimated chip fab speed and AI-driven political polarization.
also on #forecasting, Anthropic
Are Prediction Markets Good for Anything?—Asterisk
Despite billions in volume, Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets produce useful forecasts mainly on high-profile risks, while AI chatbots may soon replace them as the primary source of probabilistic information.
also on #forecasting
Anthropic Economic Index report: Learning curves
Anthropic finds experienced Claude users achieve higher success and tackle more complex tasks, while new users drive usage diversification toward lower-wage personal queries.
also on #labor-market, #economics, Anthropic
Has the cost of building software just dropped 90%? - Martin Alderson
Agentic coding tools have reduced software development labor costs by approximately 90%, enabling a single engineer with AI to ship projects in a week that previously required a team for a month.
also on #labor-market, #economics