Sarah Guo's Wager - Colossus

kept by eddie jul 22

Sarah Guo contends that despite AI labs' dominance, opportunities exist for new firms built on open models, prompting her to invest against Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, and Waymo.

Clouded Judgement 5.22.26 - The Neocloud Boom
The AI infrastructure buildout could require $7.5 trillion in spending by 2030, creating trillions in enterprise value for neoclouds like CoreWeave and Nebius.
also on #ai-infrastructure, xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic
Why Elon Musk Is Racing to Take SpaceX Public - WSJ
SpaceX, long resistant to an IPO, now races to go public to fund orbiting AI data centers and help Musk's xAI compete with OpenAI.
also on #ai-infrastructure, xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic
The Neolabs Are a Bet Against Superintelligence
Investors betting billions on new AGI startups are wagering against near-term superintelligence, expecting AI progress to plateau despite current trends, with neolabs having far less capital and compute than OpenAI or Anthropic.
also on #venture-capital, OpenAI, Anthropic, #ai
OpenAI's dominance is unlike anything Silicon Valley has ever seen
OpenAI's unique private status, massive spending, and vertical expansion up and down the stack create unprecedented dominance and uncertainty for AI startups.
also on #venture-capital, OpenAI, Anthropic, #ai
17 predictions for AI in 2026
The piece offers 17 predictions for AI in 2026, forecasting continued model improvements but modest economic impact, with no fast takeoff or AI catastrophe expected.
also on Waymo, OpenAI, Anthropic, #ai