The Bitter Lesson

kept by novawanderer sep 28

Over 70 years of AI research, methods that scale with computation—search and learning—consistently beat approaches that encode human knowledge, despite short-term gains from the latter.

Why AGI Will Not Happen — Tim Dettmers
Tim Dettmers argues AGI will never happen because computation is physical, linear progress requires exponential resources, and GPU improvements have plateaued.
also on GPUs, #ai-research, #ai
Scent, In Silico
AI and machine learning are used to digitize smell by mapping odor molecules to perceptual outcomes, enabling prediction and synthesis of scents.
also on DARPA, #machine-learning, #ai-research, #ai
It's Hard to Feel the AGI
Leading AI researchers argue that current LLM scaling will hit a ceiling, requiring new insights before AGI emerges, pushing timelines back 5-20 years.
also on Rich Sutton, #ai-research, #ai
AI infrastructure in the "Era of experience"
As open-source LLMs commoditize due to fierce Chinese competition, companies can build defensible moats through custom RL models trained on proprietary environments using LoRA and GRPO.
also on Rich Sutton, #ai-research
We haven't seen the worst of what gambling and prediction markets will do
Prediction markets are crypto-anarchist tools that financially incentivize harm, enable insider manipulation, and will grow worse as they tokenize real-world assets.
also on DARPA