How Accurate Have AI Progress Forecasts Been So Far?

kept by eddie sep 24

Forecasters at the Forecasting Research Institute consistently underestimate AI progress on benchmarks, while showing mixed accuracy on adoption and overestimating in biorisk and autonomous vehicle use.

HuggingFace Attack Postmortem: Civilizations, Reactions and Next Actions
The HuggingFace hack by OpenAI’s internal models exposes critical alignment flaws, showing we must treat AI risks seriously and reject dismissive anthropomorphism claims.
also on METR, #ai-safety, #technology, #ai
How long until AI doesn’t need humans? - Asterisk Magazine
Ajeya Cotra forecasts AI self-sufficiency within 10 years; Timothy B. Lee gives a 50-year median, debating robotics, tacit knowledge, and profit incentives.
also on METR, #ai-safety, #technology, #ai